After the plastic price has continued to rise for nearly four months, it has gradually entered the adjustment pattern since March. Xiao Bian believes that the current market lacks trend-oriented news guidance, and as the long-short power gradually shifts when prices are relatively high, plastics may ushered in a watershed in April.
The downstream market may gradually decline in the second quarter.
Since the Lantern Festival, the plastic downstream film market and the plastic knitting industry have begun to improve. The demand for the film season has gradually been released, and the order for plastic knitting has continued to increase. However, its bullish influence has been digested in the early stage of plastic price increase.
It is understood that the current downstream film manufacturers and woven companies have better production, the operating rate is mostly high, some manufacturers said that they have been fully loaded, and the overall market orders are stable, most of which can be maintained until mid-April, which makes plastic raw materials in Destocking status. However, downstream manufacturers have contradicted the high-priced raw materials, and the procurement has been maintained as a major demand, insisting on a small number of principles, and the enthusiasm for stocking is not high. According to the analysis, the downstream market may gradually decline in the second quarter, which will not help the plastic price to maintain its upward trend.
The impact of new capacity on the hedging and repairing device
As far as the supply side is concerned, on the one hand, there are 3 sets of planned maintenance devices for the PE market in the second quarter, involving a production capacity of 800,000 tons, accounting for only 5% of the total PE production capacity, so its impact on the market is small; on the other hand, the PP market There are 7 sets of planned maintenance devices, involving a capacity of 1.49 million tons, but the proportion of drawing involved in the maintenance device is small, so the impact is not as expected. Overall, this year's equipment maintenance efforts have dropped significantly year-on-year.
At the same time, in the second quarter of the PE market, there are plans to put two sets of equipment into operation, namely, the China National Coal Mine's full-density linear 7042 unit and Shenhua Xinjiang's high-pressure unit; the PP market is expected to have three sets of equipment to be put into production capacity. At present, Zhongjing Petrochemical has officially produced It is expected that China Coal Mengda and Shenhua Baotou are already preparing for driving. If the new capacity in the market is released on schedule, it will digest the impact of the maintenance of petrochemical plants and put some pressure on the plastics market.
Frozen production meeting results become an important factor in the market
The rebound in international oil prices in the early stage is also a driving force for the plastics market to maintain its upward trend, but whether the oil price in the market will continue to face greater uncertainty. At present, due to the effect of the frozen production plan, the oil price is maintained at the level of 40 US dollars per barrel, and the domestic chemical sector including plastics is supported. As a plastics market downstream of crude oil, the results of the frozen production plan will be an important factor affecting the trend of plastics in April.
Overall, the emergence of new variables at both ends of supply and demand in the second quarter may change the pre-petrochemical and social destocking status, which is not conducive to the market continues to rise. At the same time, the plastic base is worse than the zero axis for more than a month, and the futures premium status also weakens the price increase momentum. It is expected that the price of plastics will usher in a watershed in April, and it is not possible to rule out the possibility of a low price. In terms of operation, if the plastics futures price of the market continues to break above the previous high, it can be short-selling. It is recommended that investors pay attention to the dynamics of the frozen oil production meeting and the petrochemical quotation and downstream trading situation.
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